***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 4.9 4.6 39.9 35.5 30.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.4 5.0 46.0 40.4 34.5 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.0 5.0 42.4 36.8 32.0 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.1 7.7 7.7 62.6 46.7 40.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.1 6.6 54.4 42.1 37.3 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.3 6.9 7.5 64.5 46.9 39.0 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.5 5.0 47.9 40.5 34.1 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.0 10.2 6.7 53.9 41.5 35.7 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.7 6.0 51.1 39.7 35.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.7 6.5 51.7 39.9 35.2 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 5.1 6.1 55.1 41.7 35.8 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.4 6.7 6.4 57.0 43.9 36.8 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.6 7.0 7.2 60.0 44.3 36.3 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.4 5.9 43.3 36.7 31.2 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.6 8.9 78.4 56.8 48.2 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.1 7.1 61.8 45.5 38.3 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.5 6.8 5.8 57.8 46.1 37.3 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 5.4 6.6 47.0 37.3 32.7 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.6 5.2 44.8 39.5 34.2 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 6.4 8.7 52.5 41.1 34.7 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.6 5.2 44.6 37.6 32.7 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.3 7.0 6.7 61.6 49.0 40.2 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.6 3.9 5.6 44.3 37.5 33.1 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.4 5.4 5.9 44.0 36.6 31.8 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 3.5 6.1 46.2 37.6 32.8 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.9 8.7 72.9 52.2 41.8 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.5 5.2 41.7 35.3 30.8 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.1 8.0 71.6 52.0 44.2 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.6 8.6 7.3 49.1 39.0 33.6 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.0 4.6 4.8 42.8 37.6 32.4 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------