***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 8.0 10.8 90.5 58.5 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.2 11.3 98.4 62.0 49.9 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.3 11.7 97.7 61.4 49.2 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.2 14.4 17.2 133.7 73.7 58.2 4.7 7.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.7 12.2 15.6 119.7 69.3 53.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.9 17.4 111.8 66.2 54.6 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.5 10.9 94.1 60.0 48.4 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.4 20.8 16.8 116.9 68.2 56.2 8.0 13.2 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.4 14.8 109.0 65.6 51.2 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.4 16.6 113.7 67.0 54.0 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.6 9.7 14.8 115.6 67.9 53.3 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.7 15.0 118.0 68.7 56.2 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.1 15.7 112.2 66.3 54.1 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 15.9 15.4 105.2 63.6 51.8 5.0 10.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 11.9 13.9 18.7 149.2 77.6 62.9 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.8 9.3 15.6 117.3 68.4 54.7 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.1 10.5 92.9 60.2 47.8 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.5 18.3 113.5 66.8 55.5 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.3 11.6 100.6 62.8 50.4 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.8 20.8 112.4 66.3 56.1 3.7 6.6 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.1 12.4 99.9 62.2 48.8 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.9 92.4 59.7 47.3 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.2 12.3 103.6 63.6 50.9 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.5 13.4 15.4 107.3 64.6 52.4 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.3 13.7 102.9 63.0 50.6 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.6 16.0 116.9 68.1 56.4 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.7 12.0 91.7 58.4 47.6 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.9 12.3 18.0 140.0 75.2 60.7 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.7 19.4 112.9 66.5 56.0 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.4 11.4 98.2 62.0 50.2 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------