***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 1.2 8.1 69.0 45.4 38.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.2 8.4 77.1 51.1 41.2 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.4 9.2 77.0 51.2 42.4 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.5 11.3 75.6 51.0 43.5 3.8 6.4 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.6 11.7 77.4 51.2 43.6 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.6 12.6 76.6 51.0 45.6 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.1 8.0 73.8 49.5 40.4 2.0 3.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.2 13.3 85.1 55.1 47.6 6.3 9.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.4 11.8 78.1 51.5 43.6 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.1 13.4 84.1 54.4 46.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.5 11.4 79.5 52.7 44.9 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.0 11.1 80.4 53.4 45.8 3.2 5.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.5 4.9 11.2 75.0 49.5 43.3 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.5 12.4 85.2 55.1 47.3 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.6 10.3 75.1 51.9 44.1 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.2 10.8 74.9 50.0 43.2 3.0 5.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.3 8.3 78.5 53.1 42.6 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.7 14.8 89.0 56.8 48.8 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.3 8.7 79.0 52.1 42.5 2.2 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.1 16.6 85.4 54.5 48.1 2.4 4.5 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.4 10.1 75.4 50.4 42.1 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.2 8.9 82.4 53.9 43.7 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.3 80.1 52.6 44.0 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.8 12.3 85.1 55.5 47.1 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.2 3.5 10.7 73.0 49.0 42.4 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.7 11.5 79.8 52.4 45.6 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.2 9.4 70.4 46.8 40.2 2.6 4.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.5 10.7 74.4 51.3 43.4 3.0 5.3 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.4 15.5 88.8 56.4 48.9 4.3 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.1 8.4 75.2 49.6 40.6 1.8 3.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------