***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 8.6 11.3 117.4 69.0 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.5 11.3 109.0 66.1 50.9 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.3 11.9 116.3 68.6 50.2 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.6 14.8 129.4 72.5 52.0 5.1 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.5 15.3 13.9 127.8 72.1 52.2 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.3 14.4 111.6 66.2 49.3 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.0 10.9 110.4 66.3 51.4 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 25.0 14.6 124.9 71.0 53.6 9.2 14.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 14.2 13.8 128.9 72.4 51.6 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 18.4 14.7 126.2 71.4 52.6 5.6 10.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.5 16.0 12.6 124.7 71.1 51.9 5.2 9.0 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.0 15.8 12.4 123.8 70.7 52.9 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.4 12.5 113.4 66.8 49.9 4.4 7.7 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.1 14.8 15.0 109.4 66.3 50.8 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 16.0 15.2 135.6 74.2 51.5 3.0 6.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.6 12.5 118.1 68.8 50.5 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.4 11.1 109.9 66.5 52.2 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.2 16.2 123.5 70.5 53.3 4.5 7.9 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.2 11.5 107.0 65.6 50.0 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.0 18.5 123.0 70.3 54.4 5.0 8.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.3 13.0 12.7 128.3 72.3 51.4 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.8 11.6 105.8 65.1 51.6 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.6 11.9 104.7 64.9 48.6 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.2 17.9 14.4 118.0 68.9 51.5 6.0 10.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.5 11.3 14.1 127.4 72.0 53.1 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.9 13.0 119.5 69.2 52.0 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.6 12.7 119.5 69.5 52.0 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.0 14.5 127.3 71.9 50.6 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.9 25.8 17.3 123.8 70.6 53.5 8.5 14.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.2 11.3 109.7 66.3 50.1 2.7 5.6 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------