***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 2.0 2.4 2.6 1.5 73.0 69.6 -0.7 0.6 1.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 1.6 2.2 2.7 1.7 77.1 73.3 -1.0 0.2 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 3.9 4.4 2.9 1.7 75.9 72.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -2.0 -1.6 0.2 1.7 74.3 71.4 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 69.7 67.2 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 0.0 -0.3 -2.0 0.9 64.7 62.6 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 76.6 72.8 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -5.0 -5.3 -1.9 1.0 64.8 62.6 -7.6 -6.3 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 1.9 1.9 0.6 1.2 69.1 66.7 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 1.7 1.6 -1.1 1.1 66.6 64.2 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 1.4 1.3 -0.2 1.1 67.0 64.9 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.1 -0.9 1.0 65.6 63.5 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 0.5 0.7 -1.4 0.7 61.1 59.8 -1.0 0.0 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 2.3 2.6 0.7 1.5 73.2 69.9 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.8 77.2 74.2 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 2.0 1.8 -0.8 1.0 65.3 63.4 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.8 77.9 74.3 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 -0.4 -0.4 -1.5 1.3 69.0 65.7 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 1.8 2.4 2.7 1.6 76.9 73.1 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 0.7 61.1 58.4 -5.7 -4.4 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.4 71.7 68.9 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 1.6 2.1 2.6 1.8 78.3 74.8 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.5 75.7 72.0 -1.0 0.0 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.5 73.8 70.3 -0.7 0.3 1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 71.3 68.3 -0.9 0.2 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 1.1 0.7 -1.5 0.7 62.1 60.5 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.4 71.9 68.5 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.7 74.8 71.8 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -1.3 -2.3 1.0 66.2 62.9 -3.6 -2.4 -1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 2.0 2.6 2.8 1.7 76.5 72.8 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------