***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 13.4 15.8 12.9 5.0 88.3 86.6 6.7 9.1 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 12.1 14.1 12.7 4.5 86.7 84.8 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 13.4 15.8 13.5 5.2 88.0 86.2 6.7 9.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 6.8 9.7 10.4 5.7 90.0 88.3 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 13.3 15.8 11.7 5.1 87.6 85.8 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 12.3 14.3 10.1 4.9 87.0 85.0 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 11.7 13.5 12.3 4.3 86.1 84.1 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 2.6 3.6 9.8 4.4 83.8 82.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 13.7 16.0 12.9 5.1 87.1 85.3 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 13.3 15.0 10.9 4.7 83.9 82.2 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 13.7 15.9 12.4 5.2 87.2 85.4 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 12.6 14.1 10.8 4.6 85.1 83.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 13.1 14.5 11.3 4.4 83.8 81.9 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 14.3 16.5 13.1 5.4 87.1 85.4 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 12.7 15.9 12.8 5.9 90.4 88.7 5.8 8.3 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 13.9 15.8 11.4 4.9 85.9 84.1 8.0 10.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 11.1 12.7 11.9 4.2 85.4 83.5 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 13.4 15.2 10.6 5.1 86.0 84.2 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 12.6 14.7 13.0 4.7 87.2 85.4 5.7 8.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 8.0 9.3 8.1 4.5 84.7 83.1 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 13.5 15.8 13.4 5.0 87.0 85.2 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 12.4 14.1 12.4 4.4 85.7 83.8 5.8 8.3 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 13.3 15.5 13.4 5.0 87.7 86.0 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 13.8 15.9 12.9 5.3 87.1 85.3 7.4 9.8 12.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 12.6 15.0 12.0 5.1 88.3 86.4 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 12.2 13.4 9.2 3.7 83.0 80.8 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 12.8 14.9 12.2 4.7 87.4 85.6 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 14.0 17.3 11.6 5.8 89.6 87.9 6.3 9.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 9.0 10.7 9.9 5.0 86.1 84.3 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 12.1 14.2 12.8 4.7 87.3 85.4 5.7 8.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------