***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9.9 10.5 10.1 0.9 58.4 55.3 6.8 9.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.3 10.2 0.8 57.7 55.0 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.8 10.3 0.6 55.9 53.4 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.2 4.0 7.6 1.2 60.9 58.1 0.1 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.7 8.3 0.5 54.3 52.3 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.4 6.4 0.1 50.6 49.1 7.0 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 9.6 10.0 10.0 0.7 57.5 54.7 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.8 -0.2 6.4 -0.2 48.0 47.3 -2.1 0.0 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.7 9.1 0.4 53.3 51.5 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.2 7.3 -0.1 48.8 47.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.6 8.4 0.2 51.5 49.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.6 9.8 7.4 0.0 49.6 48.5 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 10.4 7.4 -0.2 48.3 47.3 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.6 9.0 0.1 51.2 49.8 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 10.0 11.7 9.8 1.8 66.0 62.9 6.9 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.0 7.8 0.1 51.3 49.8 8.5 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 9.4 9.8 9.8 0.8 58.0 55.2 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 9.6 6.7 -0.2 47.8 47.1 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.3 10.3 0.7 57.2 54.5 6.9 9.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.9 4.3 -0.4 45.7 45.4 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.7 9.9 0.5 54.5 52.2 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 10.0 10.3 10.0 0.7 57.2 54.7 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.8 10.3 0.6 55.6 53.2 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.6 8.8 0.1 50.8 49.3 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.4 8.8 0.9 58.2 55.2 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.1 6.5 -0.1 49.0 47.9 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 10.3 10.6 9.5 0.8 57.8 54.6 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.5 11.4 8.4 1.3 61.1 58.4 7.2 9.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.9 5.8 -0.4 46.2 45.8 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.2 10.2 0.8 57.8 55.0 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------