***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 12.3 0.6 56.8 55.0 10.5 12.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.4 12.3 0.8 58.3 56.4 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 12.7 0.6 55.9 54.4 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.6 10.1 0.6 55.7 54.0 2.2 4.7 7.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.2 10.7 0.2 52.2 51.3 10.7 12.9 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.3 8.2 -0.3 47.1 47.2 9.4 11.7 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.1 12.2 0.7 57.9 56.1 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.3 9.0 0.0 49.8 49.6 -0.8 1.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.0 11.1 0.2 52.0 51.2 10.6 12.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.7 9.9 0.1 50.6 50.3 10.3 12.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.8 10.4 0.0 50.3 49.9 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.8 9.9 -0.1 49.0 48.9 9.6 11.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.5 8.9 -0.3 47.2 47.4 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.7 11.3 0.4 53.8 53.1 11.2 13.2 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.6 11.0 0.9 58.3 56.3 10.1 12.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.2 9.8 -0.1 49.5 49.2 11.0 13.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.5 12.1 0.8 58.7 56.7 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.5 9.6 0.2 51.4 51.2 10.1 12.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.5 12.5 0.7 57.8 56.0 10.7 12.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.6 6.8 0.1 51.3 50.7 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.3 11.9 0.4 53.6 52.4 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.7 12.3 0.8 58.9 56.8 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.8 12.7 0.6 56.3 54.8 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.3 11.2 0.3 53.1 52.4 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.3 10.8 0.6 56.2 54.3 10.5 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.0 8.7 -0.2 47.9 47.8 10.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 11.6 0.6 56.6 54.8 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.6 10.3 0.6 55.2 53.7 10.3 12.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 8.7 0.2 51.6 51.4 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.3 12.3 0.7 57.9 56.0 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------