***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.7 11.5 1.7 72.7 69.4 8.8 10.4 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 11.9 12.4 11.4 1.6 72.6 69.2 8.7 10.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.9 11.8 1.6 71.4 68.1 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.7 9.0 1.9 73.0 70.1 1.5 3.3 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.4 12.6 9.8 1.4 67.7 64.8 9.3 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.4 11.0 7.7 0.9 62.2 59.1 8.4 9.9 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 11.5 12.0 11.3 1.5 72.0 68.7 8.4 10.0 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.0 1.4 8.0 0.8 60.9 58.3 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 12.6 12.6 10.5 1.3 67.3 64.2 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.1 9.0 1.0 62.5 59.7 9.4 11.0 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.5 9.9 1.2 65.3 62.4 9.4 11.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.4 8.9 0.9 61.9 59.2 8.9 10.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.6 12.0 8.6 0.7 59.7 57.3 9.7 11.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 12.9 13.0 10.7 1.4 68.1 64.8 9.7 11.3 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.5 13.2 10.7 2.3 76.0 73.1 8.3 10.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.7 9.1 1.0 63.6 60.9 10.0 11.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 11.1 11.6 11.1 1.5 72.6 69.2 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.3 12.0 8.6 1.1 64.0 60.7 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.0 12.5 11.6 1.6 72.3 68.9 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.6 7.1 5.9 0.8 61.8 58.4 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 12.5 12.7 11.3 1.4 68.8 65.8 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 12.0 12.6 11.3 1.6 72.4 69.0 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.9 11.8 1.6 71.4 68.0 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.5 10.5 1.3 67.3 64.0 9.6 11.0 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.4 10.1 1.7 71.8 68.7 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.5 7.8 0.6 59.6 57.0 9.3 10.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.5 10.8 1.6 71.6 68.3 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.3 9.6 1.9 72.3 69.4 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 6.7 7.3 7.7 1.0 63.3 59.9 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.2 11.5 1.6 72.5 69.1 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------