***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.5 10.2 78.7 55.2 46.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.1 10.9 100.6 63.9 52.1 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.6 10.4 82.4 56.9 47.2 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.6 7.8 49.7 42.1 34.1 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 7.7 9.5 66.1 49.6 40.2 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.4 9.1 66.4 49.1 38.5 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.2 10.7 99.4 63.9 52.7 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 12.5 11.1 68.1 50.3 41.0 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.7 9.4 67.4 50.1 41.0 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.9 11.1 70.4 50.8 41.6 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.3 9.5 66.2 49.3 38.9 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.0 9.6 65.7 49.5 39.6 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.3 10.6 68.9 50.4 40.4 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.0 15.1 96.8 62.2 52.8 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.5 4.2 5.1 34.0 35.5 27.4 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.8 9.6 64.6 48.9 38.9 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.6 11.6 110.6 67.6 55.8 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.5 12.8 79.2 54.3 46.0 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.6 9.5 11.2 98.3 63.1 51.8 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.2 14.8 76.4 53.9 45.8 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.7 9.8 72.4 52.5 43.0 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.2 12.6 111.5 67.7 56.4 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.0 11.8 95.4 61.9 52.1 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.7 12.3 84.4 57.2 48.1 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.8 6.9 10.7 72.6 52.3 43.6 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.1 10.6 72.8 52.8 40.9 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.6 10.9 80.6 56.1 47.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 4.5 6.6 43.9 39.3 31.5 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.6 14.0 82.1 55.9 47.9 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.8 10.6 93.0 61.1 50.2 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------