***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.9 10.7 14.0 119.3 69.7 58.3 2.7 5.4 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.2 11.9 107.6 65.9 52.8 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 13.4 14.4 119.0 69.2 57.5 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.2 15.5 112.8 67.4 56.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.4 12.9 17.1 124.2 70.8 59.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.1 12.2 18.8 146.8 77.3 68.9 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.1 8.2 12.1 112.8 67.7 54.0 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 21.6 25.7 20.9 142.8 76.2 64.3 8.0 13.2 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.8 11.3 18.5 137.4 74.8 64.0 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.7 14.3 20.5 143.7 76.5 65.0 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 10.2 11.4 18.2 132.5 73.2 61.1 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 8.8 10.5 18.7 138.5 75.0 63.6 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 10.7 12.7 18.4 134.2 73.9 64.5 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.9 20.7 19.4 126.9 71.7 61.0 5.0 10.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.1 10.1 13.7 113.6 68.1 56.9 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.4 10.2 16.6 125.0 71.0 60.8 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.7 10.8 100.1 63.9 51.3 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 12.3 15.4 21.9 148.2 77.8 67.6 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.2 12.5 108.0 65.8 52.9 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 11.9 14.2 25.5 141.2 75.3 65.0 3.7 6.6 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.9 12.5 16.6 128.9 72.3 61.0 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.9 11.4 96.2 62.2 49.8 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.2 14.0 112.2 66.9 54.1 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.9 18.2 19.4 135.6 74.3 64.3 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.7 15.7 113.1 67.4 56.2 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.1 9.9 18.4 129.6 72.5 62.1 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.4 9.5 14.6 115.8 68.5 57.8 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 9.4 14.5 113.2 67.8 57.3 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 19.3 24.0 23.8 151.6 78.6 68.5 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.4 10.0 12.6 112.2 67.4 54.0 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------