***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.5 10.0 83.0 55.4 44.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 3.3 8.3 76.0 52.5 40.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.4 10.3 85.6 56.3 44.2 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.9 12.3 87.5 58.0 43.3 3.8 6.4 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.0 12.7 92.8 59.3 44.6 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.9 14.8 108.3 64.9 49.3 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.4 8.3 77.7 53.3 40.1 2.0 3.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.3 15.6 109.4 65.9 50.0 6.3 9.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.2 13.7 96.8 60.9 46.6 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.0 15.5 105.5 64.3 48.9 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.4 13.4 101.8 63.1 46.8 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.4 14.0 108.5 65.6 49.1 3.2 5.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.6 14.7 107.1 64.8 49.6 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.4 14.8 97.7 61.5 48.8 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.6 11.2 82.7 57.1 39.6 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.6 13.8 103.6 63.7 47.7 3.0 5.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.7 3.2 7.9 74.3 51.6 38.2 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.8 16.6 108.6 65.6 51.5 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.5 8.9 78.8 53.5 42.1 2.2 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.3 19.6 111.7 66.7 53.4 2.4 4.5 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.8 11.9 91.5 58.9 45.9 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.8 8.3 73.2 50.3 39.1 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.6 10.4 86.8 57.1 45.0 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.9 14.4 101.0 62.8 48.8 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.7 11.8 86.4 56.8 44.8 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.8 13.3 100.2 62.5 48.5 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.5 10.9 86.2 56.6 44.7 2.6 4.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.1 12.7 92.4 60.4 43.5 3.0 5.3 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 14.1 17.7 111.5 66.6 53.4 4.3 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.4 8.6 77.3 52.9 41.3 1.8 3.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------