***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.1 8.8 62.5 45.2 36.9 2.5 5.0 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.6 4.4 7.6 63.0 45.0 36.1 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.3 8.2 58.4 42.5 35.3 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.8 6.9 9.1 58.4 43.8 35.2 5.1 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.3 6.2 9.0 57.9 42.5 35.4 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.3 6.1 10.6 71.6 49.1 40.2 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.4 4.6 7.9 66.2 46.5 37.0 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.0 13.0 10.5 64.6 45.0 37.4 9.2 14.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.4 6.0 9.2 57.4 41.3 35.2 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.7 8.0 10.3 61.2 42.8 36.7 5.6 10.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.1 7.5 8.9 59.8 43.7 36.5 5.2 9.0 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.7 7.8 9.7 67.6 47.5 38.5 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.6 10.8 72.6 49.6 40.1 4.4 7.7 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.4 7.4 10.1 58.2 40.0 34.3 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.0 5.2 8.0 54.1 44.4 33.7 3.0 6.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.7 6.2 9.6 66.0 46.4 37.9 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.8 5.1 7.6 65.2 46.5 36.9 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 6.4 11.2 63.3 43.2 37.3 4.5 7.9 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.6 7.7 60.8 43.6 35.4 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 7.3 13.2 65.0 44.4 37.2 5.0 8.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.6 9.0 59.2 43.0 36.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.9 7.8 62.5 44.5 35.5 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.8 4.3 8.2 59.5 42.6 35.3 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.9 8.1 9.8 59.7 41.8 35.8 6.0 10.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.9 4.3 9.6 60.6 43.6 35.9 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.2 6.4 10.4 72.0 49.8 39.4 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.6 9.5 64.2 45.6 36.9 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.5 4.3 8.8 58.8 45.0 35.4 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.3 12.1 11.9 64.4 43.4 37.3 8.5 14.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.5 7.9 62.4 44.7 36.0 2.7 5.6 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------