***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 17.0 23.7 43.0 84.6 45.7 42.3 17.5 25.9 36.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.9 22.0 38.8 86.2 46.8 42.9 14.7 23.9 35.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 43.3 31.8 43.4 85.2 45.6 42.3 22.5 35.3 50.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 27.4 32.4 44.8 75.6 39.1 36.1 29.1 38.5 49.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 25.7 32.6 48.3 84.2 44.3 40.4 26.3 36.0 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 34.7 32.0 53.2 97.0 54.7 49.8 19.3 29.0 40.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.0 23.0 39.0 88.4 49.3 44.8 15.5 23.3 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 51.5 64.8 58.1 94.5 52.2 46.1 52.5 63.4 74.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.8 30.4 50.8 88.2 47.0 42.1 23.0 32.2 42.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 30.9 42.0 57.4 93.3 50.9 45.1 31.3 41.4 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.2 33.2 50.0 89.1 48.4 43.5 23.9 34.4 46.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.0 37.3 52.0 93.8 52.1 46.3 26.3 36.0 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 40.1 36.5 54.4 94.5 52.7 47.8 25.7 34.8 45.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 54.7 48.0 59.5 93.6 51.1 46.8 33.2 46.8 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.7 21.2 38.0 68.6 37.6 34.2 18.2 31.1 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.1 31.2 49.6 88.6 48.2 44.2 23.9 32.3 41.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 14.6 21.7 38.0 87.0 48.2 43.7 14.9 22.5 32.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 40.7 38.7 62.4 97.8 54.2 48.4 26.5 35.9 46.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 18.5 26.0 40.3 85.9 46.0 42.6 18.2 28.6 41.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 40.7 38.3 73.2 96.8 54.2 48.6 26.3 35.9 46.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.2 29.8 47.3 86.6 46.3 42.1 22.4 31.8 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 16.1 22.3 40.0 85.4 46.3 42.6 15.9 24.3 34.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 32.5 25.9 44.3 87.8 47.1 43.6 18.8 27.5 37.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 51.9 45.6 55.9 93.8 51.2 46.3 31.7 44.5 59.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 17.8 25.0 47.8 82.2 43.4 40.3 19.0 29.1 41.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 34.4 31.3 52.8 93.3 52.4 47.1 21.9 30.0 39.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 17.5 25.0 46.0 85.6 46.3 42.7 18.1 27.1 37.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 17.9 23.2 42.6 75.4 40.3 37.0 19.3 28.9 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 65.5 65.0 67.4 100.5 56.5 50.6 45.1 58.9 74.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 32.4 24.1 39.7 85.5 46.5 42.9 16.6 26.3 38.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------