***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 2.4 2.8 1.7 71.4 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.3 67.6 63.4 -1.8 -0.1 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 2.7 4.2 2.4 1.5 69.9 65.1 0.5 2.2 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 -2.2 -1.4 0.8 2.0 73.8 69.3 -6.0 -4.1 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 0.9 1.6 1.1 2.1 73.7 68.9 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 0.2 0.8 -0.5 2.3 75.9 71.4 -3.1 -1.6 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.4 68.0 63.6 -1.5 0.2 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -4.7 -3.8 0.0 2.4 75.4 71.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 2.0 2.6 1.6 2.0 72.7 67.8 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 2.0 2.6 0.5 2.3 74.3 69.8 -1.0 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 1.7 2.3 0.8 2.1 73.8 69.1 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 0.4 1.0 0.6 2.2 74.5 70.0 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 1.3 1.8 0.2 2.3 75.3 70.5 -1.6 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 1.3 2.5 1.2 1.5 68.7 64.5 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 2.0 2.4 1.1 1.8 71.3 67.6 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 2.2 2.8 0.5 2.1 74.3 69.7 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.2 65.6 61.8 -1.3 0.3 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -0.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 74.9 70.8 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.3 67.5 63.3 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -2.4 -1.4 -1.4 2.8 77.3 72.8 -6.7 -4.7 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.8 72.0 66.7 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.1 64.7 61.0 -1.6 0.1 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 67.3 63.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.8 71.0 66.8 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 1.6 2.3 1.6 2.0 73.5 68.4 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 1.5 2.0 0.3 2.1 75.7 70.9 -1.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 2.1 2.8 2.2 1.8 72.0 66.7 -1.7 0.2 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.0 72.7 68.8 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 2.7 76.3 72.2 -4.8 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.4 68.7 64.2 -1.5 0.4 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------