***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 2.1 2.3 -0.4 44.2 47.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 2.4 1.4 2.2 -0.3 45.5 48.7 0.4 1.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.8 2.2 -0.3 46.3 49.6 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -4.1 -2.6 0.0 -0.5 42.2 47.3 -3.7 -1.8 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -0.5 0.6 0.3 -0.4 44.6 48.4 -0.3 1.1 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -1.0 0.4 -1.5 0.0 50.1 52.0 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.6 2.2 -0.4 44.9 48.0 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -4.6 -5.2 -0.9 0.0 50.3 52.2 -7.1 -5.3 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.9 0.9 -0.3 45.6 48.7 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.1 -0.3 -0.1 48.8 51.0 1.0 2.2 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.7 0.0 -0.3 46.3 49.4 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.7 -0.2 0.0 49.5 51.6 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.6 -0.7 0.0 50.0 51.5 0.5 1.6 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.9 1.0 0.0 49.6 51.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.7 0.5 -0.6 40.6 46.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.2 -0.4 -0.2 46.7 49.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.8 2.0 -0.4 44.7 47.6 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 0.8 0.5 -0.9 0.1 51.4 53.0 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.7 2.2 -0.2 46.6 49.7 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 0.3 53.3 54.0 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.5 1.6 1.7 -0.4 44.8 48.3 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.5 2.1 -0.3 46.0 48.8 0.5 1.8 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.6 2.1 -0.1 48.3 51.1 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.1 0.8 0.0 49.4 51.8 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.2 0.8 -0.6 42.0 46.5 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.6 -0.4 0.1 50.8 51.7 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.2 1.4 1.6 -0.5 42.9 46.8 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.5 42.3 47.5 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.7 -1.4 0.3 53.3 54.4 -2.6 -1.0 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.6 1.9 2.3 -0.3 45.6 48.9 0.8 2.3 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------