***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 2.2 2.4 1.0 69.7 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.5 2.0 0.9 67.0 63.8 -0.8 0.3 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 3.9 3.9 2.1 0.9 68.7 65.4 1.5 2.6 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 -2.0 -1.8 0.1 1.1 70.7 67.3 -4.7 -3.4 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.2 71.3 67.8 -1.4 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 0.2 0.7 -1.1 1.6 77.3 73.1 -2.0 -1.0 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 1.7 1.7 2.1 0.9 67.9 64.5 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -4.6 -4.3 -0.7 1.6 75.8 72.0 -7.5 -6.2 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 1.9 2.1 1.1 1.2 71.1 67.5 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 1.9 2.1 -0.1 1.4 73.6 70.1 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 1.7 1.9 0.3 1.3 73.4 69.9 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 75.1 71.4 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 1.4 1.7 -0.3 1.4 75.5 71.6 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 2.3 2.2 0.7 0.9 66.1 63.7 0.2 1.2 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 1.8 1.9 0.6 1.0 68.9 65.7 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 2.2 2.5 -0.1 1.3 73.9 70.2 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 1.9 1.7 1.9 0.8 65.5 62.5 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 1.6 74.1 70.7 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.8 66.8 63.8 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -2.6 -2.2 -2.3 1.7 76.0 71.8 -5.5 -4.2 -3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.0 69.6 66.1 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 0.7 1.1 1.8 0.7 63.5 60.9 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.8 66.9 64.1 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 1.6 1.6 0.6 1.1 69.7 66.8 -0.6 0.5 1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.1 71.1 67.0 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.6 -0.3 1.4 75.1 71.3 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.1 70.3 66.3 -0.7 0.6 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1 69.8 66.8 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 -0.8 -0.3 -1.3 1.7 76.1 72.1 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 2.0 2.0 2.2 0.9 68.1 64.8 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------