***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 9999.0 10.0 9.6 0.6 56.1 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 8.7 9.2 9.6 0.5 56.0 55.7 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 9.9 9.7 9.6 0.1 51.3 51.3 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 3.4 3.4 6.8 0.3 52.6 52.7 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 10.2 10.1 8.0 0.2 52.4 52.4 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 9.4 9.7 6.7 0.5 55.1 55.0 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 8.4 9.4 9.7 0.9 60.4 59.9 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 0.9 0.6 6.8 0.0 50.4 50.6 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 10.7 10.5 9.0 0.2 51.8 51.8 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 10.5 10.0 7.7 0.0 49.8 50.1 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 10.7 10.4 8.1 0.1 51.4 51.5 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 9.9 9.7 7.6 0.2 51.7 51.8 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 10.5 10.7 7.8 0.4 54.2 54.0 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 10.6 9.5 8.6 -0.4 46.0 46.5 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 9.1 9.2 8.1 0.4 54.1 54.0 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 11.0 11.0 7.9 0.3 53.1 53.0 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 8.0 8.7 9.3 0.7 57.9 57.6 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 10.4 9.8 7.1 0.0 49.6 49.9 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 8.9 8.9 9.5 0.2 52.6 52.5 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 5.7 5.4 5.0 0.0 49.8 50.0 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 10.2 10.0 9.4 0.1 51.1 51.1 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 8.8 8.8 9.1 0.2 51.8 51.7 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 9.7 9.1 9.4 -0.1 48.7 48.9 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 10.8 10.0 8.6 -0.2 48.3 48.6 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 9.0 9.5 8.2 0.5 55.6 55.4 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 10.0 10.2 6.9 0.4 54.5 54.3 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 9.4 10.2 9.1 0.8 58.4 58.0 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 10.0 9.8 7.6 0.2 52.3 52.3 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 6.4 6.1 6.4 0.1 50.9 51.0 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 8.8 9.3 9.7 0.6 56.2 55.9 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------