***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 12.3 11.4 1.5 66.3 61.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.1 11.0 1.2 63.5 59.4 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.7 12.1 11.6 1.5 65.5 61.3 7.6 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 4.6 4.8 10.1 1.9 68.1 64.2 0.1 2.4 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.8 12.7 10.5 2.0 68.5 64.4 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.6 12.0 9.2 2.3 70.9 66.3 6.9 9.1 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.0 10.8 1.2 63.9 59.6 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.6 2.1 9.2 1.9 67.9 63.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 12.4 12.5 11.0 1.9 67.6 63.4 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.0 12.6 10.0 1.9 67.8 63.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.9 10.3 2.0 69.0 64.8 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.0 12.1 10.0 1.9 68.3 64.3 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.2 9.6 2.1 69.5 65.3 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.5 10.7 1.4 64.2 60.6 8.0 10.4 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 10.1 11.7 10.1 1.7 66.3 62.9 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.4 10.0 2.1 69.5 65.3 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.6 10.5 1.0 62.3 58.5 6.9 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 12.1 9.3 1.8 66.9 62.7 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.3 11.3 1.2 63.6 59.7 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 7.4 7.4 7.0 1.7 66.8 62.6 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.8 12.4 11.4 1.7 66.9 62.7 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.1 10.8 1.0 61.7 58.2 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.0 11.4 1.3 63.9 60.1 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.2 12.6 10.7 1.6 65.7 61.7 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.1 11.7 10.1 1.7 67.3 63.0 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 12.4 12.6 9.2 1.9 69.0 64.9 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.4 11.9 10.6 1.5 66.7 62.2 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 12.2 12.4 10.3 2.0 67.9 64.2 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.4 8.3 1.8 66.9 62.7 2.9 5.1 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.2 11.2 1.3 64.3 60.2 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------