***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 11.2 10.1 -0.4 45.6 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.2 11.1 10.0 -0.4 45.2 48.5 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 9.3 11.3 10.3 -0.4 45.9 48.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.9 8.3 -0.4 45.7 47.3 1.3 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.4 11.5 8.8 -0.3 47.2 48.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.4 7.4 0.2 51.5 51.3 8.5 10.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 8.7 10.7 9.9 -0.4 45.5 48.7 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -0.9 1.1 7.9 0.1 50.6 51.6 -0.6 1.0 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.4 11.4 9.4 -0.3 47.3 49.3 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.3 11.6 8.5 -0.1 49.3 50.8 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.4 8.7 -0.1 48.6 49.9 9.6 11.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.0 8.6 0.0 50.4 51.4 9.1 10.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.9 8.2 0.1 51.2 51.8 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.9 9.5 -0.2 47.6 49.9 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.0 10.1 8.3 -0.6 44.2 45.8 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.0 12.0 8.4 -0.1 49.3 50.2 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 8.4 10.3 9.8 -0.5 44.6 48.1 9.0 10.8 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.6 8.1 0.0 50.4 51.9 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.0 11.0 10.2 -0.4 45.4 48.6 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.8 7.2 5.9 0.2 52.1 53.0 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.5 11.4 9.9 -0.4 46.1 48.6 10.0 11.8 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 9.0 11.0 10.0 -0.5 44.5 47.9 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.6 10.3 -0.4 46.2 49.0 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.8 9.4 -0.2 48.3 50.5 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 8.6 10.6 8.6 -0.5 45.3 47.7 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 8.0 0.2 52.4 52.9 9.8 11.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 8.7 10.9 9.4 -0.4 45.8 48.5 9.5 11.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.7 8.4 -0.4 45.9 47.2 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 6.9 7.2 0.1 51.3 52.7 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.9 10.8 10.2 -0.4 45.5 48.7 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------