***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 10.6 10.9 -1.2 36.5 39.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.4 10.8 -1.1 38.2 41.0 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 10.3 11.7 11.1 -1.2 37.5 40.3 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.9 9.1 -1.4 35.1 39.0 2.6 5.1 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 10.0 11.4 9.5 -1.3 36.8 39.7 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.2 11.0 7.9 -0.8 42.5 43.9 9.7 12.0 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 9.8 11.1 10.7 -1.1 38.0 40.8 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.2 0.3 8.2 -1.0 40.1 41.6 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 9.9 11.4 10.0 -1.3 37.1 39.7 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 9.6 11.4 8.9 -1.2 38.9 40.7 10.6 12.9 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.0 11.5 9.3 -1.1 38.7 40.8 10.8 13.0 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.9 9.1 -1.0 40.2 41.9 9.9 12.3 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.4 12.0 8.6 -0.8 41.5 43.0 10.8 13.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.6 12.1 10.0 -1.1 39.6 41.7 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.5 9.3 -1.5 33.6 38.7 10.4 12.8 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.2 9.0 -1.0 39.8 41.8 11.3 13.6 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 9.4 10.6 10.6 -1.1 38.5 41.1 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.6 11.3 8.4 -1.1 40.0 41.6 10.3 12.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.0 -1.1 38.5 41.2 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.6 6.1 -0.8 42.2 43.1 5.3 7.6 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 10.1 11.5 10.6 -1.3 36.6 39.6 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.6 10.7 -1.1 38.6 41.2 11.0 12.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.7 12.0 11.0 -1.1 38.9 41.4 11.3 13.2 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.8 9.9 -1.1 39.0 41.1 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.9 11.0 9.4 -1.4 35.1 38.8 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.5 11.5 8.4 -0.7 42.4 43.7 10.1 12.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 9.9 11.2 10.1 -1.3 36.1 39.4 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 9.7 11.0 9.4 -1.4 35.8 39.8 10.6 13.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 6.5 7.4 -0.9 41.4 42.6 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 9.9 11.2 11.0 -1.1 37.8 40.7 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------