***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 10.7 10.5 0.1 51.8 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.6 10.3 0.0 50.8 51.2 9.0 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.1 10.6 0.0 50.0 50.6 9.5 11.1 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.6 8.6 0.1 51.3 51.0 1.7 3.5 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.4 9.2 0.2 52.4 51.9 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.6 10.8 7.8 0.6 58.3 56.4 8.6 10.1 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.4 10.3 0.2 52.7 52.5 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.2 1.0 8.0 0.2 53.8 53.2 -0.5 0.8 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.4 9.9 0.1 51.8 51.6 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.4 8.8 0.2 52.5 52.3 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.6 9.1 0.2 53.5 52.9 9.6 11.3 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 8.8 0.3 54.6 53.8 9.1 10.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.0 8.5 0.4 56.9 55.5 9.9 11.4 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.4 9.7 -0.1 48.8 49.8 9.9 11.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.5 8.9 0.0 50.2 50.0 8.6 10.4 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 8.8 0.3 55.1 54.0 10.2 11.7 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.9 10.0 0.1 51.0 51.2 8.4 9.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.2 8.2 0.2 52.9 52.7 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.5 10.5 0.0 49.8 50.5 9.0 10.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.7 6.0 0.3 54.4 53.8 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 10.3 0.0 50.5 50.7 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.5 10.2 -0.1 48.3 49.4 9.1 10.6 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 10.5 -0.1 48.9 49.9 9.6 11.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 9.6 0.0 50.5 51.1 9.8 11.2 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.7 9.1 0.1 51.5 51.2 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.6 8.1 0.5 57.5 56.0 9.5 11.0 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.0 9.8 0.2 52.8 52.3 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.0 8.9 0.1 51.6 51.2 8.9 10.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.7 7.3 0.3 54.2 53.8 4.9 6.4 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.5 10.5 0.1 51.3 51.5 8.9 10.4 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------