***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 40.5 54.5 124.0 71.6 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 38.2 39.4 49.8 121.7 70.4 64.5 14.4 23.6 35.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 53.0 56.3 55.6 125.0 72.3 65.4 21.7 33.6 48.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 51.0 58.8 66.9 138.6 78.4 72.0 28.6 37.8 48.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 50.3 56.4 66.2 134.0 76.7 70.9 26.0 35.5 46.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 43.6 52.6 74.7 138.2 80.0 75.0 19.0 28.0 38.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 34.3 35.0 48.8 120.0 69.6 64.0 15.2 22.9 32.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 74.7 82.2 70.2 131.9 76.7 70.5 50.1 61.0 72.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 45.2 46.5 62.2 123.6 72.0 66.3 22.5 31.4 41.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 54.8 59.1 68.2 125.7 73.6 67.8 30.5 40.6 52.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 50.2 58.8 64.5 136.4 78.1 72.3 23.4 33.7 46.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 48.7 56.8 64.6 138.3 79.2 73.0 25.2 34.4 45.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 49.1 57.1 72.3 141.7 80.6 75.4 24.5 33.4 43.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 51.5 62.5 63.8 115.3 67.2 61.0 31.2 44.8 61.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 55.4 74.8 70.4 156.4 83.5 77.5 17.9 30.1 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 44.6 52.4 68.0 141.1 80.2 74.4 23.2 31.4 40.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 25.4 31.8 45.5 114.0 66.3 61.6 14.9 22.4 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 37.8 48.6 72.1 119.0 70.1 63.6 25.6 34.9 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 44.0 45.9 51.5 122.7 70.9 64.7 17.6 28.0 40.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 37.5 48.4 82.4 119.6 70.2 63.2 25.3 34.3 45.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 45.1 46.7 57.7 122.6 71.1 64.6 21.7 31.2 42.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 27.5 35.6 48.2 116.3 67.6 62.8 15.8 24.3 34.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 39.3 40.2 54.4 120.8 70.1 63.6 18.3 26.8 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 47.4 61.1 64.8 119.4 69.8 63.3 30.5 42.7 57.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 44.1 49.2 64.9 129.2 74.3 67.5 18.9 28.9 40.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 42.6 49.8 71.0 142.0 80.4 74.7 19.8 28.1 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 39.7 42.4 59.5 124.0 71.7 65.0 18.1 27.0 37.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 45.5 57.0 69.6 149.5 82.0 76.1 19.2 28.7 39.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 61.1 75.5 74.9 116.7 68.6 61.6 43.3 57.1 72.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 40.9 43.1 51.5 123.8 71.5 65.2 15.9 25.6 37.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------