***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 13.1 16.5 145.3 76.8 70.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.1 16.0 14.4 145.3 76.8 68.6 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 14.1 17.9 16.5 149.9 78.0 71.2 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 18.5 27.5 22.4 197.3 86.3 80.4 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 16.0 21.4 21.5 178.3 83.6 77.7 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 15.0 23.4 23.0 209.4 87.9 81.7 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 12.7 14.5 13.9 139.3 75.2 66.9 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 21.7 29.1 21.8 180.4 84.3 77.5 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.8 15.4 18.4 149.0 77.7 71.1 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 15.2 19.0 20.6 162.4 80.7 74.0 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.1 17.7 21.8 199.0 87.2 80.0 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 15.7 24.6 21.7 205.6 88.3 80.7 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.7 22.3 24.8 218.4 89.3 83.6 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 16.2 17.7 16.4 124.9 71.1 64.2 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 21.9 47.8 27.8 280.6 93.6 88.1 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 15.2 24.8 23.3 215.0 89.0 82.3 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.8 13.0 12.2 123.0 70.6 62.5 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.9 13.7 19.9 141.0 75.7 69.4 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.5 16.4 15.1 146.9 77.2 69.1 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 12.9 14.0 20.0 127.7 72.0 66.0 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.8 16.1 16.6 138.3 74.9 68.9 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.4 14.0 13.0 125.1 71.2 63.1 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 10.8 12.0 15.3 137.7 74.8 66.7 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 12.6 14.7 18.2 138.5 75.0 68.2 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.7 20.4 19.9 154.1 78.8 73.2 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 16.4 27.1 25.2 227.0 89.9 84.4 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.6 15.2 17.8 144.0 76.4 70.2 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 15.9 28.6 25.7 251.1 91.4 85.9 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 16.7 18.7 19.0 129.7 72.5 66.1 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 14.2 18.0 15.3 151.4 78.3 70.7 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------