***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 6.5 13.2 114.2 67.9 52.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.8 12.5 111.2 66.9 54.0 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.7 13.0 113.3 67.4 51.6 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.7 13.4 111.7 67.1 52.1 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.0 10.5 13.4 110.4 66.4 52.8 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.7 14.7 101.0 62.6 52.7 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.2 6.6 12.7 112.4 67.2 54.5 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.3 17.8 13.9 105.4 64.6 52.8 6.3 11.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.8 12.8 102.4 63.5 50.1 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.0 13.6 101.5 62.8 50.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.8 12.1 102.6 64.0 51.7 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.0 12.2 104.4 64.7 53.0 2.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.8 14.2 107.5 65.4 55.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.5 16.8 15.6 110.9 66.4 53.2 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.4 9.5 13.4 117.0 69.1 54.0 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.9 12.9 105.1 64.8 53.8 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.4 11.9 107.2 65.9 53.2 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.8 15.6 103.8 63.3 51.2 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.1 12.6 111.2 66.9 53.3 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.6 19.2 112.7 66.8 53.9 2.3 5.2 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.3 12.7 108.0 65.7 50.9 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.4 12.2 109.2 66.5 53.3 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.6 13.2 112.9 67.4 53.0 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.3 13.4 14.8 109.2 65.5 51.6 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.7 15.0 115.5 68.2 54.3 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.9 13.3 100.2 62.9 53.9 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.8 14.4 113.3 67.4 53.3 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.9 13.0 112.0 67.2 53.2 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 15.3 17.1 106.8 64.6 52.4 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.5 12.7 112.2 67.2 53.4 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------