***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 4.2 12.8 115.6 68.0 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.8 4.8 11.2 113.5 67.5 57.8 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.5 13.1 110.9 66.4 55.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.5 16.5 115.6 68.3 57.1 3.2 5.6 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.5 16.4 113.8 67.5 56.6 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.3 18.8 117.7 68.4 56.3 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 4.3 11.0 113.5 67.5 57.6 1.9 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.4 13.8 17.4 107.2 64.5 52.6 7.3 10.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.7 15.9 112.1 66.7 55.8 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.4 17.1 107.3 64.5 53.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.0 15.8 110.2 66.2 53.8 2.7 5.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.0 15.6 107.9 65.2 52.9 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.9 16.7 109.3 65.3 53.7 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.6 15.9 105.2 63.8 53.2 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.0 7.3 15.7 115.4 68.6 55.4 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.1 16.3 111.4 66.4 54.0 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.2 4.0 10.1 110.9 66.6 57.8 1.7 2.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.4 18.3 104.5 62.9 51.5 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.9 11.8 112.8 67.3 57.2 2.2 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.4 21.6 106.8 63.9 51.7 3.4 5.4 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.4 7.7 14.7 115.7 68.1 56.8 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.4 4.3 10.9 111.9 66.8 58.6 1.6 2.7 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.8 13.0 110.5 66.5 56.0 2.2 3.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.9 16.0 104.8 63.5 52.7 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.7 15.5 119.3 69.2 57.7 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.9 4.7 16.3 111.2 66.2 54.6 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.4 14.0 117.0 68.3 56.5 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.4 16.4 113.7 67.7 55.4 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.3 19.5 105.5 63.2 51.3 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.8 4.6 11.7 113.2 67.4 56.9 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------