***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 9.4 12.1 120.7 70.0 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.1 10.9 11.6 118.2 69.4 59.2 2.5 5.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.9 16.0 12.9 127.9 72.1 60.7 3.6 7.5 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.8 13.0 14.6 137.6 74.8 64.9 4.5 7.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.0 16.1 15.0 138.0 74.9 64.9 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.4 13.3 18.2 145.4 77.1 68.8 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.3 9.5 11.2 115.6 68.7 58.9 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 22.8 27.3 17.2 145.6 76.9 66.9 8.0 13.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.9 13.4 15.1 133.6 73.7 63.6 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.3 19.1 16.9 138.4 75.0 65.3 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.1 18.7 14.8 145.5 76.9 66.4 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 14.6 19.0 15.0 150.5 78.2 67.9 3.5 7.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 14.2 16.6 16.6 148.4 77.8 69.4 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.3 16.1 15.8 122.1 70.4 60.4 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 14.1 15.2 13.6 134.8 74.0 63.4 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 12.2 14.8 15.4 148.6 77.8 68.5 3.2 6.0 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.0 10.0 11.3 115.4 68.7 59.1 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 12.7 14.3 18.3 131.0 72.9 64.0 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.5 13.5 12.1 121.2 70.2 59.4 2.7 6.1 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 14.5 16.4 21.6 135.2 74.1 65.6 4.4 8.0 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.7 13.7 130.1 72.7 62.1 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.6 12.1 119.4 69.8 59.8 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.4 11.5 12.9 123.3 70.8 59.3 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.8 18.1 15.9 128.4 72.2 62.1 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.6 11.3 14.5 127.8 72.0 62.2 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.3 14.4 16.1 147.9 77.6 68.4 3.3 6.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.4 9.6 13.3 121.4 70.2 59.8 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.8 12.5 14.5 141.4 75.8 65.9 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 23.1 25.5 19.2 128.2 72.1 63.6 6.4 12.4 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.2 11.6 11.8 120.1 70.0 59.2 2.4 5.3 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------