***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 2.2 2.0 2.8 1.2 65.1 62.0 -0.9 0.6 2.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 2.3 1.9 2.7 1.2 65.4 62.1 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.2 2.8 1.2 65.7 62.6 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -1.8 -2.0 0.1 1.2 65.9 64.5 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.0 62.7 61.9 -1.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 0.2 -0.1 -1.9 1.2 64.3 63.6 -2.2 -1.1 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 2.4 2.0 2.7 1.2 65.6 62.2 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -4.3 -5.0 -2.1 0.8 60.5 60.1 -7.3 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 1.3 1.8 0.6 1.0 62.7 61.4 -0.4 0.9 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.6 -1.2 0.9 61.2 60.2 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 1.6 1.2 -0.5 1.0 62.7 62.2 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 0.5 0.1 -1.2 1.0 61.9 61.6 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 1.4 1.0 -1.5 1.0 62.2 61.8 -0.8 0.3 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.9 61.7 59.9 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.5 70.2 67.6 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 2.3 1.9 -1.0 1.1 63.4 62.9 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 2.5 2.2 2.7 1.2 65.5 62.1 -0.3 1.0 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -0.5 -1.9 0.8 59.9 58.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 2.3 2.1 2.6 1.1 65.3 62.1 -0.7 0.8 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -3.1 -3.1 -3.9 0.5 56.3 56.2 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.0 63.4 61.4 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 1.9 1.6 2.4 1.1 65.1 62.1 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 0.8 1.5 2.3 1.1 64.6 61.8 -1.0 0.4 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.9 62.2 60.4 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.1 64.2 62.0 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 1.4 1.0 -1.6 1.0 62.7 62.0 -0.8 0.3 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.2 64.4 61.8 -1.0 0.6 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.3 67.1 65.7 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.6 0.7 58.2 57.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 2.4 2.1 2.7 1.2 65.6 62.3 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------