***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.6 58.7 56.0 0.7 2.1 3.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.1 2.7 3.4 0.8 61.7 57.4 0.4 1.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.9 3.4 0.6 59.6 56.4 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -1.0 0.5 0.5 57.2 55.4 -3.7 -1.8 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 54.1 53.5 -0.3 1.1 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.0 0.7 -1.6 0.3 54.3 54.4 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.8 61.3 57.3 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -7.5 -5.0 -1.6 0.2 52.2 53.1 -7.1 -5.3 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.6 1.0 0.3 54.9 54.0 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.4 -0.7 0.2 53.2 53.1 1.0 2.2 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.2 -0.1 0.2 53.2 53.2 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 1.3 1.0 -0.8 0.2 53.5 54.0 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.9 -1.1 0.3 54.2 54.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.3 1.0 0.4 56.2 54.4 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 3.9 3.3 1.8 0.8 62.9 58.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.7 -0.6 0.2 53.5 53.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 2.8 3.2 3.4 0.9 62.6 58.0 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -0.8 0.6 -1.4 0.2 53.2 53.3 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 0.3 2.9 3.3 0.7 61.2 57.3 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -4.1 -2.4 -3.2 0.1 52.0 52.7 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 0.5 2.5 2.5 0.5 56.7 54.9 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.6 3.1 0.8 61.7 57.8 0.5 1.8 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.3 3.0 0.6 59.8 56.6 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.4 56.3 54.9 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.4 2.0 0.6 58.2 56.0 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.1 1.9 -1.2 0.4 55.4 55.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.8 2.9 0.6 59.0 56.3 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -0.8 1.5 0.7 0.6 58.5 56.1 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -3.0 -0.7 -1.9 0.2 53.3 53.3 -2.6 -1.0 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.5 3.2 3.4 0.7 61.0 57.1 0.8 2.3 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------