***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.4 10.7 2.3 70.4 69.8 6.9 9.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 11.7 11.9 11.5 2.8 74.8 74.0 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.2 11.1 2.2 68.3 67.8 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.6 7.3 2.3 68.2 67.7 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 10.2 11.6 8.6 1.5 62.5 62.1 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 9.4 9.2 5.8 0.1 51.1 51.1 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 11.3 11.5 11.2 2.7 74.6 73.8 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.9 1.4 6.8 1.0 59.4 59.0 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 12.4 12.5 10.2 1.9 66.2 65.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 10.5 11.2 7.9 1.0 58.6 58.3 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 10.7 11.9 9.2 1.4 62.2 61.8 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 10.0 11.2 7.9 1.4 63.3 62.7 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 10.4 10.8 8.0 0.5 55.1 54.9 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.9 10.8 2.4 68.7 68.1 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 12.7 12.7 10.1 3.1 74.6 73.9 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 10.9 11.9 8.1 1.1 59.7 59.3 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 11.1 11.6 11.4 3.1 77.7 76.8 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 10.3 11.2 7.6 1.3 60.3 59.9 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 11.9 12.1 11.5 2.7 73.5 72.9 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 5.7 6.0 5.0 0.6 55.9 55.6 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 10.4 12.0 10.7 1.8 65.4 64.9 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 12.2 12.6 11.8 3.2 77.0 76.2 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 12.6 12.6 11.6 2.7 72.2 71.6 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 10.7 12.4 10.3 1.9 65.6 65.1 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 9.2 11.0 9.1 1.8 65.9 65.4 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 10.1 10.3 6.3 0.6 55.9 55.6 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.6 9.9 2.0 68.2 67.6 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.6 8.5 2.3 68.3 67.8 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 6.3 7.3 7.1 1.3 61.6 61.1 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 11.5 11.7 11.3 2.6 73.2 72.5 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------