***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.5 14.3 12.9 1.1 61.8 58.0 10.9 12.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.5 14.1 12.9 1.2 63.1 58.5 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.5 13.3 1.1 61.5 57.8 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.7 10.5 1.1 61.1 57.8 2.6 5.1 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 10.5 14.3 11.2 0.9 58.7 56.3 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 9.0 13.0 9.2 0.8 57.8 55.6 9.7 12.0 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.2 13.8 12.9 1.2 63.4 58.5 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.0 2.5 9.8 0.8 58.1 55.8 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.5 14.1 11.7 0.9 58.6 56.2 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 13.9 10.6 0.8 57.9 55.7 10.6 12.9 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.4 14.1 11.1 0.8 58.2 56.1 10.8 13.0 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.5 13.4 10.7 0.8 58.4 56.0 9.9 12.3 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.4 14.1 9.8 0.7 57.4 55.4 10.8 13.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.4 11.9 1.0 59.3 56.4 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.1 14.7 11.4 1.3 63.9 59.3 10.4 12.8 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.8 14.7 10.6 0.8 58.4 56.2 11.3 13.6 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.1 12.7 1.2 63.4 58.6 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.6 10.3 0.9 58.1 55.8 10.3 12.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.6 14.2 13.1 1.2 62.7 58.3 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.7 7.4 0.8 58.3 55.4 5.3 7.6 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.7 14.3 12.5 0.9 59.6 56.9 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.7 14.1 12.8 1.1 62.4 58.2 11.0 12.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 11.0 14.6 13.3 1.1 62.2 58.1 11.3 13.2 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.2 11.8 0.9 58.9 56.3 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.4 14.2 11.2 1.1 61.0 57.8 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.9 9.8 1.0 60.5 57.1 10.1 12.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.2 12.1 1.1 61.5 57.8 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.1 14.8 10.8 1.2 61.5 58.0 10.6 13.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.6 9.3 0.8 58.1 55.6 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.0 12.9 1.1 62.8 58.3 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------