***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 12.8 14.0 12.3 2.3 82.0 76.8 9.1 10.7 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 12.5 13.9 12.5 2.4 84.3 78.7 9.0 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 13.2 14.2 12.7 2.3 81.2 76.1 9.5 11.1 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.7 9.6 2.4 79.4 75.3 1.7 3.5 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 13.3 13.9 10.6 2.0 76.6 72.3 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 12.1 12.4 8.5 1.7 73.9 69.7 8.6 10.1 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 12.3 13.7 12.4 2.4 84.6 78.8 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 2.3 2.6 8.9 1.7 74.0 69.4 -0.5 0.8 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 13.3 14.0 11.5 2.1 78.2 73.4 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.5 9.9 1.8 73.8 69.5 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 13.4 13.9 10.8 2.0 76.6 72.2 9.6 11.3 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 12.6 13.1 10.0 1.9 76.8 71.9 9.1 10.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.6 9.6 1.7 74.4 70.1 9.9 11.4 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.5 11.8 2.3 79.7 74.5 9.9 11.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 13.0 14.4 11.1 2.7 82.4 78.1 8.6 10.4 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 13.7 14.3 10.1 1.9 76.3 71.9 10.2 11.7 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 11.8 13.3 12.3 2.5 85.5 79.8 8.4 9.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.3 9.6 1.8 75.1 70.1 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 12.7 14.1 12.7 2.4 83.6 78.1 9.0 10.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.2 6.7 1.4 71.9 67.0 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 13.2 14.0 12.2 2.1 78.5 73.8 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 12.7 14.2 12.5 2.4 84.1 78.7 9.1 10.6 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 13.2 14.5 12.9 2.4 82.9 77.6 9.6 11.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 13.1 13.9 11.5 2.1 78.7 73.4 9.8 11.2 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 12.7 13.5 10.8 2.2 79.7 75.0 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.3 8.9 1.7 76.9 71.8 9.5 11.0 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 12.8 13.8 11.6 2.2 81.2 76.0 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 13.5 14.6 10.2 2.4 79.5 75.4 8.9 10.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 8.2 8.7 8.7 1.8 75.3 70.0 4.9 6.4 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 12.4 13.7 12.5 2.4 83.7 78.2 8.9 10.4 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------