***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 95 5 0 100 1.2 0.3 1.5 11.5 7.0 7.6 2.9 6.0 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 2.2 0.9 1.5 13.1 8.9 9.1 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 2.1 0.6 1.5 11.8 6.9 7.6 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 1.9 0.5 1.4 9.0 6.4 6.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 2.6 0.8 1.6 11.3 5.1 6.3 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 1.8 0.8 2.0 14.4 10.0 10.0 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 1.9 0.7 1.5 13.2 8.9 9.2 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 4.1 1.7 2.4 15.5 7.1 8.4 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 2.2 0.8 1.7 12.8 5.8 7.1 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 2.8 1.1 2.5 16.5 7.1 8.7 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 2.2 0.9 2.1 14.8 7.2 8.5 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 2.4 1.0 1.9 13.8 7.5 8.4 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 2.7 1.6 2.5 16.9 10.8 11.0 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 2.4 0.9 2.5 15.5 9.8 10.1 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.2 7.8 9.7 8.1 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 2.0 0.8 2.1 14.4 8.9 9.4 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 2.6 1.1 1.5 13.1 9.5 9.3 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 2.6 1.4 2.7 17.1 8.1 9.4 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 2.0 0.8 1.6 12.9 8.5 8.9 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 2.6 1.1 2.6 14.3 7.9 8.5 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 2.1 0.7 1.7 12.2 6.4 7.4 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 2.8 1.3 1.6 13.9 9.4 9.5 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 1.7 0.7 1.7 13.0 8.7 9.0 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 3.0 1.6 2.3 15.8 9.0 9.8 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 1.1 0.1 1.6 10.7 5.3 6.3 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.7 1.9 13.0 9.0 9.1 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.3 1.5 11.3 6.4 7.2 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 1.7 0.7 1.5 10.1 9.2 8.4 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 3.7 1.7 2.7 16.4 8.3 9.3 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 1.9 0.7 1.5 12.9 8.1 8.6 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------