***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.7 11.1 78.5 51.9 41.6 2.7 5.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.3 10.2 83.8 54.7 44.6 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.2 7.0 11.2 80.6 52.0 40.6 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.0 7.6 10.7 70.7 48.5 37.8 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.4 4.6 10.3 66.4 44.5 36.1 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.7 11.0 72.9 48.6 38.0 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.4 9.6 80.8 54.1 44.1 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.9 10.7 12.0 73.6 47.7 38.7 6.3 11.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.3 4.9 11.8 77.3 49.7 40.1 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.6 5.1 11.9 73.5 47.2 38.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.5 4.3 10.2 66.5 44.0 36.6 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.5 4.7 10.7 72.4 48.1 38.9 2.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.6 10.7 67.2 45.7 36.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.5 14.3 88.6 55.1 43.5 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.1 5.1 10.1 70.5 50.9 38.8 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.9 5.3 10.6 69.7 47.3 38.4 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.1 10.1 87.1 57.1 47.0 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.9 13.8 82.1 51.5 40.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.3 10.6 85.1 54.7 44.1 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.2 5.4 17.0 79.5 50.8 40.3 2.3 5.2 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.5 78.6 51.0 40.3 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.1 11.3 92.3 58.8 49.1 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.0 11.1 84.2 53.6 42.4 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.7 8.6 13.2 84.0 52.7 41.3 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.5 4.6 11.5 70.1 46.5 37.4 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.7 10.8 70.9 46.9 36.3 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.7 11.3 75.4 49.8 40.6 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.1 9.9 68.1 48.5 37.6 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 4.9 10.6 15.4 84.3 52.6 41.6 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.6 10.3 81.7 53.6 43.0 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------