***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.7 12.1 93.8 61.9 51.0 1.6 2.7 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.8 9.9 86.3 58.9 48.8 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.9 12.7 99.5 63.5 52.5 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.9 13.2 96.3 61.8 50.5 3.2 5.6 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.3 13.7 98.2 61.9 51.3 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.2 14.6 102.3 63.1 51.1 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.6 9.6 86.0 58.6 48.5 1.9 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 13.8 15.3 105.5 64.5 52.8 7.3 10.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.2 15.5 105.5 64.8 53.4 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.8 16.6 108.8 65.8 53.8 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.0 13.6 101.7 63.2 51.9 2.7 5.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.6 13.1 101.7 63.0 51.6 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.3 14.0 100.2 62.1 51.6 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.9 10.9 17.7 113.3 67.5 57.4 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 6.3 13.0 102.0 64.7 50.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.4 13.5 101.0 62.9 51.8 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.1 9.0 80.3 56.1 46.4 1.7 2.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.4 10.0 18.6 115.6 68.1 56.0 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.9 10.6 91.2 60.4 50.4 2.2 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.6 19.6 106.1 64.7 54.2 3.4 5.4 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.7 13.7 100.3 63.4 52.5 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.4 9.7 84.9 57.7 48.4 1.6 2.7 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.4 12.4 100.6 63.5 53.8 2.2 3.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.5 17.1 114.4 67.9 56.2 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.4 13.6 96.3 61.8 51.0 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.9 4.0 13.3 96.8 61.0 51.3 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 6.2 12.9 96.1 62.3 51.5 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.7 13.3 100.9 63.6 50.5 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 15.3 19.5 115.3 68.0 56.5 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.9 10.7 90.8 60.5 50.1 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------