***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.6 10.7 81.8 53.4 44.2 2.4 5.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.6 8.6 75.1 51.4 43.2 2.5 5.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.6 9.8 75.1 51.0 42.3 3.6 7.5 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.2 12.8 85.1 55.8 43.9 4.5 7.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.0 12.8 85.8 55.2 43.9 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.8 13.1 88.8 56.5 45.1 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.3 8.8 77.8 52.3 43.5 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.2 15.5 13.7 87.1 55.3 43.8 8.0 13.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.2 12.8 82.4 53.6 43.9 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.9 13.8 84.9 54.2 44.1 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.8 9.8 12.5 87.6 55.9 43.8 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.1 12.3 88.5 56.7 44.0 3.5 7.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.0 13.4 90.7 57.6 45.5 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.3 12.2 74.2 50.1 42.1 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.5 11.4 78.6 54.9 41.2 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.0 13.0 91.8 58.3 45.3 3.2 6.0 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.9 8.4 76.4 52.6 43.0 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.0 13.9 82.9 53.6 44.4 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.1 8.7 72.9 50.1 42.2 2.7 6.1 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.7 17.2 89.0 56.7 45.7 4.4 8.0 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.3 11.7 81.6 53.5 43.9 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.7 8.6 73.1 51.5 42.1 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.2 9.2 71.4 48.5 40.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.3 9.7 11.8 75.9 50.8 42.3 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.5 12.6 85.2 55.1 45.5 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.2 12.0 83.5 54.8 44.3 3.3 6.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.8 11.7 84.4 54.8 45.8 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.3 12.5 85.9 56.9 43.5 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 14.2 14.5 83.4 53.8 44.6 6.4 12.4 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.0 5.7 9.1 76.5 51.7 43.6 2.4 5.3 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------