***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 15.5 16.1 35.4 66.7 29.2 30.6 17.7 26.0 35.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 12.7 12.6 30.2 64.5 29.1 30.2 14.4 23.6 35.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 19.0 19.3 35.2 67.0 29.2 30.8 21.7 33.6 48.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 24.2 24.4 38.2 63.6 25.2 27.4 28.6 37.8 48.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 22.2 21.4 38.3 65.4 24.9 27.6 26.0 35.5 46.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 16.9 16.1 40.6 70.4 27.1 29.8 19.0 28.0 38.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 13.9 13.4 29.6 64.4 28.8 30.0 15.2 22.9 32.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 45.2 45.3 43.4 70.2 25.4 28.9 50.1 61.0 72.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 19.4 20.8 41.7 70.9 29.3 31.1 22.5 31.4 41.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 26.5 27.1 44.7 71.7 27.2 30.5 30.5 40.6 52.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 20.1 18.6 38.4 67.4 24.5 28.1 23.4 33.7 46.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 21.7 21.0 38.1 68.6 24.9 28.3 25.2 34.4 45.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 21.4 20.4 40.6 68.3 24.8 28.3 24.5 33.4 43.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 28.7 30.1 46.8 72.6 31.5 32.8 31.2 44.8 61.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 14.6 15.6 35.7 63.0 29.1 29.8 17.9 30.1 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 20.2 20.0 39.2 68.6 26.0 29.1 23.2 31.4 40.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.7 29.0 64.2 30.1 30.5 14.9 22.4 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 22.7 24.6 49.1 75.1 30.8 33.0 25.6 34.9 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 15.6 15.7 31.5 65.2 29.2 30.4 17.6 28.0 40.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 22.2 23.2 56.4 72.6 29.1 31.1 25.3 34.3 45.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 18.3 19.7 38.6 68.6 28.8 30.5 21.7 31.2 42.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 14.2 15.1 31.3 66.2 31.4 31.5 15.8 24.3 34.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 16.2 16.6 34.4 67.0 29.3 30.8 18.3 26.8 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 27.2 29.2 44.5 73.1 31.2 32.9 30.5 42.7 57.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 15.8 15.8 39.3 65.4 26.6 28.8 18.9 28.9 40.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 16.6 15.7 38.1 65.3 23.5 26.9 19.8 28.1 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 16.0 16.0 37.4 67.1 28.5 30.3 18.1 27.0 37.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 16.4 16.4 37.2 65.0 27.2 29.1 19.2 28.7 39.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 39.2 41.8 52.2 75.3 31.3 33.3 43.3 57.1 72.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 14.6 14.2 31.7 65.5 29.4 30.6 15.9 25.6 37.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------