***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -0.9 0.5 0.7 -0.4 44.8 47.9 -0.5 0.9 2.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.2 0.5 -0.6 41.2 45.8 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.6 0.7 -0.5 43.6 47.3 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -5.0 -4.2 -2.6 -0.9 38.1 43.6 -4.7 -3.2 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -1.3 -0.2 -1.6 -0.2 47.0 50.5 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -0.5 -3.2 0.5 56.0 56.2 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.5 42.6 46.3 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -4.0 -5.2 -3.1 0.5 56.4 56.4 -7.1 -5.7 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.1 -1.0 0.0 50.2 52.4 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -0.2 1.3 -2.4 0.4 54.7 55.4 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -0.6 0.8 -2.1 0.1 51.5 53.9 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -1.8 -0.1 -2.4 0.5 55.6 56.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 1.6 0.9 -2.5 0.7 58.3 58.0 -0.6 0.4 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 0.0 1.4 -1.3 0.0 49.7 51.4 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 -1.8 -1.3 32.5 39.4 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.5 -2.4 0.2 52.6 54.8 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -0.3 0.6 0.4 -0.7 40.6 44.8 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -2.3 -0.5 -2.9 0.5 56.6 56.1 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -0.7 0.3 0.4 -0.6 41.2 46.1 -0.4 1.0 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -1.9 -2.6 -4.3 0.9 60.7 58.7 -4.6 -3.4 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.3 46.3 49.2 -0.5 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 39.5 44.7 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -1.1 0.1 0.3 -0.5 42.9 47.4 -0.7 0.6 1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 0.1 50.8 52.2 -0.4 0.8 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.3 -0.8 -0.5 43.7 47.3 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.0 -2.6 0.7 58.9 58.1 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -1.3 0.4 0.2 -0.3 46.0 48.7 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -1.3 -2.4 -0.9 38.1 43.8 -1.7 -0.5 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -1.1 -3.3 0.7 58.6 57.2 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -0.6 0.5 0.6 -0.6 42.2 46.4 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------