***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 0.6 2.0 1.8 -0.3 45.8 49.0 0.9 2.4 3.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.5 1.6 -0.5 43.4 47.5 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.0 1.9 -0.4 45.1 48.3 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.1 -0.9 -0.3 45.5 48.8 -3.5 -1.6 0.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.1 -0.3 -0.1 49.4 51.4 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.0 -2.1 0.5 55.5 56.9 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.8 1.7 -0.5 43.6 47.8 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.2 -4.5 -2.2 0.3 53.8 55.3 -6.8 -5.0 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.4 0.1 0.0 50.1 51.7 1.0 2.4 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.5 -1.4 0.2 52.0 53.5 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.3 -0.9 0.2 52.2 54.0 0.9 2.1 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.3 -1.4 0.4 54.6 56.5 -0.4 1.0 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.2 -1.6 0.5 55.8 57.6 0.6 1.8 2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.7 -0.4 -0.3 45.8 49.4 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.1 0.1 -0.4 44.5 48.1 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.8 -1.2 0.3 53.6 55.6 1.2 2.6 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.9 1.6 -0.6 42.4 46.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -0.7 0.7 -2.2 0.2 51.9 53.3 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.7 1.6 -0.5 43.3 47.4 0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -2.0 -3.7 0.4 54.5 55.2 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.9 1.2 -0.2 47.4 49.8 0.8 2.1 3.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.4 1.2 1.2 -0.7 40.9 45.6 0.6 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.4 1.4 -0.4 43.9 47.9 0.7 1.8 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.1 -0.4 -0.1 48.1 50.4 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.7 0.4 -0.3 46.6 49.6 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.2 -1.6 0.6 57.1 58.6 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.9 1.3 -0.3 46.7 49.8 0.6 2.2 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.7 -0.6 -0.3 46.6 49.8 -0.4 1.0 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -0.5 -2.7 0.2 52.5 53.6 -2.4 -0.7 0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.0 1.7 -0.4 44.2 48.0 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------