***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7 -2.9 11.1 17.1 -0.5 0.8 2.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 -1.8 -3.1 -1.9 -3.1 7.8 13.7 -0.6 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 0.5 -0.6 -1.6 -2.9 9.7 15.7 1.7 2.8 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 -5.7 -6.9 -4.6 -3.1 10.3 14.5 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 -2.0 -2.7 -3.6 -2.6 14.1 19.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 -2.3 -2.4 -5.1 -1.6 25.5 30.9 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 -1.4 -2.6 -1.8 -2.9 9.0 15.0 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -7.7 -8.1 -5.2 -1.8 23.0 27.8 -7.3 -6.1 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 -0.9 -1.6 -3.3 -2.5 14.0 19.8 -0.1 1.0 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 -0.6 -1.1 -4.6 -2.1 19.1 24.4 -0.1 0.9 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 -1.1 -1.6 -4.1 -2.4 16.4 22.1 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -1.9 -2.3 -4.3 -1.9 22.9 28.0 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 -1.0 -1.1 -4.2 -1.6 25.2 30.9 -0.6 0.3 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 -0.5 -1.3 -3.7 -2.7 12.6 18.3 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 -1.2 -2.2 -3.7 -3.2 9.3 13.0 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 -0.5 -0.8 -4.4 -2.2 18.5 23.9 0.2 1.2 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 -1.6 -3.0 -2.2 -3.3 6.8 12.0 -0.3 0.8 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -2.7 -3.0 -5.2 -2.1 19.3 24.5 -2.1 -1.1 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 -1.6 -3.0 -2.0 -3.1 7.8 13.8 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -5.8 -6.0 -6.2 -1.5 25.5 30.3 -5.3 -4.1 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 -1.5 -2.3 -2.3 -2.8 11.5 17.4 -0.5 0.6 1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 -1.9 -3.3 -2.3 -3.3 6.3 11.7 -0.7 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 -1.7 -2.9 -2.1 -2.9 8.9 15.1 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 -1.2 -1.9 -3.7 -2.5 13.9 19.5 -0.4 0.6 1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 -1.5 -2.2 -2.8 -2.8 13.2 18.6 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -0.8 -0.8 -4.0 -1.2 30.8 35.9 -0.6 0.3 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 -1.5 -2.3 -2.0 -2.7 13.7 19.6 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 -2.6 -3.5 -4.5 -3.2 9.7 13.7 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -5.7 -1.9 22.2 27.2 -3.3 -2.1 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 -1.3 -2.7 -1.8 -3.0 8.5 14.6 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------