***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.3 7.6 -2.1 29.3 36.6 6.9 9.3 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.6 7.5 -2.2 27.5 35.4 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.0 8.4 -1.6 34.4 40.4 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 4.0 -2.8 24.8 29.4 0.1 2.3 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.0 7.3 -0.9 41.1 44.8 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.5 6.8 0.4 53.5 54.3 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 6.2 6.4 7.5 -2.1 28.0 35.8 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.6 -0.2 6.5 -0.1 49.4 51.4 -2.2 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.1 8.3 -0.8 41.9 45.5 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.1 9.9 7.3 -0.3 47.4 49.7 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.7 8.0 -0.5 45.5 48.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.6 7.4 -0.1 49.0 51.2 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.3 10.7 7.8 0.1 51.3 53.2 8.3 10.5 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 9.4 8.2 -0.8 42.3 45.9 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 4.9 3.8 4.3 -4.2 14.6 19.2 7.2 9.6 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.4 7.5 -0.3 47.0 49.6 8.5 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 6.4 6.3 7.3 -2.1 27.9 35.3 7.1 9.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 9.9 7.1 0.1 50.7 52.4 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.6 6.8 7.8 -2.0 29.7 37.0 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.6 5.0 0.3 53.1 54.3 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.2 8.7 8.6 -1.2 38.6 43.1 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 6.7 7.1 7.6 -1.9 29.8 36.7 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.0 8.3 -1.6 33.9 40.0 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.4 9.8 8.5 -0.5 45.5 48.5 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.7 7.0 6.4 -2.0 30.6 36.4 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.5 6.8 0.4 53.7 54.6 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.3 7.3 -1.8 31.5 38.1 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 5.9 6.0 4.7 -2.9 25.0 29.2 7.4 9.9 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.3 6.4 0.2 52.0 53.4 2.8 5.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 6.5 6.6 7.5 -2.1 28.1 36.0 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------