***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.8 9.4 -0.6 43.0 45.9 9.6 11.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.8 9.1 -0.9 39.5 43.7 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.4 9.8 -0.6 43.4 46.2 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 0.7 2.2 6.5 -1.2 37.3 41.7 1.6 3.7 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.9 8.4 -0.1 48.6 49.9 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.6 11.7 7.4 0.9 59.4 57.2 8.9 10.7 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.6 9.1 -0.8 40.3 44.1 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.8 7.6 0.7 57.0 55.4 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.0 9.1 0.1 50.7 51.4 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.5 8.3 0.5 55.1 54.2 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.2 8.6 0.3 53.4 53.2 9.9 11.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.9 8.5 0.6 56.6 55.3 9.3 11.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.0 8.0 0.8 59.0 56.9 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.2 12.3 8.8 -0.2 48.2 49.4 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 8.3 9.1 6.9 -1.6 32.4 38.5 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.9 8.3 0.4 54.8 54.1 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.1 8.9 -0.9 39.2 43.3 9.4 11.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.5 8.1 0.6 56.0 54.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.8 9.3 -0.8 40.4 44.5 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.1 5.7 0.8 58.2 56.0 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.7 9.5 -0.3 46.8 48.5 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.9 9.0 -0.9 39.6 44.1 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.6 9.6 -0.7 42.6 46.0 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.1 12.3 9.0 0.0 50.2 50.8 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 9.0 10.6 7.7 -0.7 42.3 45.3 9.6 11.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.8 12.7 7.7 0.8 59.0 56.9 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.4 11.0 8.8 -0.5 43.9 46.5 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 8.5 10.1 6.9 -1.0 39.0 43.2 9.3 11.5 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.7 7.3 0.7 56.8 55.1 5.0 7.0 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.6 9.2 -0.8 40.3 44.2 9.9 11.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------