***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.9 12.7 10.9 -0.6 43.2 47.3 11.6 13.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.9 12.2 10.7 -0.8 41.2 46.2 11.3 13.1 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.1 12.9 11.3 -0.6 43.3 47.5 11.7 13.7 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.3 8.4 -0.9 40.9 45.6 3.1 5.6 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 10.8 13.1 9.5 -0.5 44.7 47.7 11.5 13.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 9.5 12.4 8.0 -0.1 49.5 50.9 10.1 12.5 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.9 10.7 -0.8 41.1 45.9 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -0.6 2.1 8.6 0.1 50.6 51.6 -0.1 2.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.9 13.1 10.1 -0.4 45.6 48.3 11.5 13.6 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.7 13.3 9.2 -0.1 48.9 50.5 11.2 13.5 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 10.6 13.2 9.6 -0.3 47.3 49.4 11.3 13.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 9.9 12.6 9.3 -0.1 48.9 50.5 10.4 12.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.7 13.4 8.6 -0.1 48.6 50.3 11.3 13.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.3 10.1 -0.5 45.5 49.0 11.9 13.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.8 9.0 -1.0 39.5 45.5 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 11.0 13.6 9.1 -0.3 47.0 49.3 11.7 14.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.3 10.5 -0.9 40.3 45.3 10.6 12.2 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.5 13.1 9.0 0.0 49.9 51.3 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.4 10.9 -0.7 42.1 46.9 11.4 13.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.4 6.5 0.3 52.6 52.9 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 11.0 13.0 10.7 -0.6 43.9 47.4 11.6 13.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.3 10.6 -0.8 41.0 46.1 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 11.4 13.0 11.2 -0.6 43.4 47.7 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.3 13.3 10.1 -0.4 46.3 49.2 11.7 13.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.7 12.5 9.3 -0.7 42.8 46.8 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 10.2 13.0 8.5 0.0 50.0 51.2 10.7 13.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.6 10.2 -0.6 43.5 47.4 11.4 13.4 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 10.2 12.3 8.7 -0.9 41.4 46.2 11.1 13.5 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 8.3 8.2 0.1 51.1 52.0 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.7 12.2 10.8 -0.7 42.0 46.7 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------