***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 7.9 5.9 6.6 -3.5 7.8 13.7 9.4 11.0 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 7.8 5.8 6.5 -3.6 6.4 12.3 9.4 10.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 8.4 6.8 7.1 -3.4 9.1 15.2 9.9 11.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 0.1 -2.0 3.4 -4.1 7.1 11.4 2.0 3.7 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 8.6 7.4 5.8 -3.0 12.8 18.6 9.9 11.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 8.3 8.2 5.1 -1.7 26.1 30.7 8.9 10.4 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 7.5 5.6 6.6 -3.5 7.1 13.0 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -1.0 -1.3 5.1 -2.1 21.7 26.5 -0.3 0.9 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 8.7 7.7 6.6 -2.9 13.5 19.4 10.0 11.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 8.9 8.4 5.7 -2.4 19.0 24.3 9.9 11.5 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 8.8 8.0 6.2 -2.6 16.3 21.7 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 8.4 8.0 5.9 -2.2 19.8 24.9 9.4 10.9 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.0 5.9 -2.1 21.2 26.4 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 8.9 7.8 6.5 -3.1 13.1 19.4 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 6.7 3.7 4.1 -4.7 4.5 8.1 8.9 10.7 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 9.4 8.7 5.8 -2.5 17.1 22.5 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 7.1 5.2 6.3 -3.6 6.3 11.8 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 8.9 8.5 5.5 -2.1 22.0 27.1 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 7.8 5.7 6.7 -3.6 7.0 13.1 9.4 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.5 4.5 3.7 -1.6 26.5 31.0 5.1 6.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 8.7 7.3 7.0 -3.2 11.1 17.1 10.0 11.5 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 7.8 5.8 6.5 -3.6 6.6 12.4 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 8.5 6.8 7.0 -3.5 8.5 15.0 10.0 11.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 9.1 8.3 6.7 -2.7 15.8 21.8 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 7.9 6.2 5.3 -3.5 9.1 14.8 9.3 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.3 9.1 5.5 -1.6 25.2 30.3 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 8.2 6.6 6.3 -3.3 9.5 15.6 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 7.1 4.8 4.0 -4.1 7.6 11.8 9.2 11.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.4 4.2 5.0 -1.9 24.0 28.9 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 7.8 5.8 6.6 -3.6 6.8 12.7 9.3 10.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------