***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 15.2 27.5 23.6 234.5 90.9 86.3 3.1 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 16.4 25.0 19.1 206.7 87.8 81.8 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 17.7 30.8 22.0 227.4 90.1 85.3 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 20.7 44.6 31.7 271.2 94.0 91.4 3.5 7.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 17.7 26.4 23.6 211.2 88.6 85.2 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 14.1 21.5 24.5 222.7 89.7 86.7 3.8 6.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 15.2 21.4 18.0 192.7 85.6 79.6 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 23.2 31.0 22.5 182.1 84.4 79.6 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 15.3 23.9 22.8 223.6 89.9 86.4 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 16.5 21.5 21.7 184.1 84.2 80.3 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 12.1 17.5 22.9 207.5 87.9 84.3 3.2 5.7 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 15.9 23.2 22.2 202.1 87.8 83.3 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.0 17.8 22.5 186.3 85.2 81.8 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 21.4 30.4 21.5 181.8 84.1 78.6 4.9 9.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 22.8 59.3 35.2 349.1 96.4 94.5 3.9 8.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 15.1 22.4 23.3 207.6 87.9 84.4 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 14.2 18.1 15.6 168.5 81.8 75.2 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 13.8 18.1 21.2 172.5 82.8 77.8 4.5 7.5 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 17.2 26.7 19.9 213.7 88.7 82.9 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 14.5 20.1 27.1 186.1 84.0 77.7 4.1 7.3 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 18.0 31.2 23.7 238.0 91.1 87.2 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.3 19.5 16.4 171.1 82.4 76.4 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 13.7 21.8 20.5 215.6 88.9 83.1 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 15.9 21.7 20.7 188.1 85.2 80.1 5.0 8.3 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 18.5 32.3 25.6 223.0 89.9 85.9 3.2 6.9 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 16.5 24.5 24.0 204.4 87.9 83.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 15.4 26.5 23.9 223.0 89.8 85.1 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 16.7 34.2 30.5 286.0 93.7 91.3 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 20.1 25.9 21.9 168.0 82.0 76.2 6.0 10.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 17.4 29.7 20.6 220.0 89.3 84.0 3.4 7.1 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------