***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9.1 12.6 20.5 159.7 80.4 66.9 2.6 4.8 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 7.7 9.4 17.6 149.5 77.7 65.6 1.9 3.8 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 11.2 15.7 20.4 157.6 80.0 67.0 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.6 14.9 20.7 144.5 76.9 64.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.7 14.6 20.7 143.5 76.6 66.0 2.4 5.3 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.8 19.7 126.8 71.6 61.4 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.9 16.9 146.5 77.0 66.4 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.0 19.6 19.9 120.7 69.5 61.3 4.7 9.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 8.8 10.0 19.6 133.0 73.6 62.1 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.2 11.1 19.5 120.2 69.2 60.1 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.2 12.6 19.6 130.6 72.9 62.8 2.6 5.6 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.6 10.1 18.9 127.0 71.7 62.4 3.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.0 11.7 19.2 120.2 69.2 59.2 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.4 17.4 21.9 127.8 71.9 60.6 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 8.9 11.4 19.3 149.0 77.6 64.3 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 10.4 11.8 19.9 135.5 74.0 64.1 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.3 15.7 134.1 73.8 64.1 1.5 2.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.0 10.2 20.7 117.2 68.2 59.1 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 8.5 10.7 18.3 150.7 78.2 64.8 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.7 10.7 27.4 121.4 69.9 61.9 2.3 5.1 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.7 12.3 20.2 145.7 77.0 65.0 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.5 7.4 17.4 140.7 75.7 64.5 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 8.8 11.1 19.3 145.3 77.0 62.7 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.1 16.1 21.0 132.1 73.1 61.8 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.2 13.1 23.4 155.0 79.8 68.5 2.3 4.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 8.3 8.7 20.0 125.7 71.3 62.6 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 8.8 12.3 21.5 155.2 79.5 66.9 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.4 13.0 20.1 149.0 77.8 65.7 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.9 16.3 23.4 119.5 69.1 60.3 3.7 8.2 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 7.8 10.2 18.8 157.5 79.7 67.0 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------