***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 4.4 5.1 17.9 141.2 75.7 64.2 1.4 2.5 3.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.2 7.1 15.4 141.3 75.7 64.8 2.0 3.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 10.4 11.9 17.4 138.2 74.9 62.4 2.7 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.8 17.3 118.8 69.0 55.5 3.3 5.8 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.7 7.9 17.6 122.2 70.1 57.3 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.2 16.7 108.4 64.8 55.4 2.7 4.7 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.8 15.6 143.6 76.3 65.4 1.8 2.9 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.8 14.8 16.9 110.5 65.7 54.4 7.6 10.9 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.5 10.8 18.6 125.8 71.3 58.8 2.8 5.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.4 12.5 18.5 117.6 68.4 56.7 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.5 15.8 114.0 67.3 54.7 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.0 15.0 109.9 65.6 53.5 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.4 17.0 111.9 66.3 54.9 2.8 4.8 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.6 21.0 129.9 72.6 62.0 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.6 8.1 16.4 121.1 70.0 54.7 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.3 15.9 111.3 66.2 54.2 2.8 4.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.1 6.1 15.5 147.4 77.2 65.9 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.6 19.6 117.1 68.2 57.5 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.5 8.6 15.8 139.7 75.3 63.9 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.3 22.2 113.6 66.8 56.1 3.5 5.6 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 8.4 9.5 18.4 134.9 74.0 61.5 2.1 4.2 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.0 7.2 16.3 146.8 77.2 64.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.8 17.1 137.5 74.7 62.5 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 13.9 19.2 126.6 71.5 60.2 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 7.7 8.6 20.1 137.4 74.7 63.1 2.2 4.1 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.8 15.6 106.8 64.8 54.7 2.3 3.9 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.6 8.8 18.8 138.3 75.0 64.0 2.2 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.6 16.0 113.0 67.2 53.3 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 17.3 20.1 114.8 67.3 57.0 6.3 10.7 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.5 15.9 141.0 75.7 64.5 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------