***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.6 11.0 14.4 126.2 71.6 56.6 2.5 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 11.4 13.6 133.0 73.6 58.5 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.0 14.6 14.4 126.0 71.6 57.1 3.5 7.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.4 13.9 107.1 65.4 53.9 4.4 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.8 14.1 108.1 65.9 55.6 4.4 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.1 13.7 95.2 59.6 52.2 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.7 10.8 13.5 133.5 73.7 58.8 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.5 14.3 96.8 60.7 53.0 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.5 11.0 15.4 113.9 67.9 57.5 3.6 6.6 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.8 15.9 105.9 64.4 55.6 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.0 12.9 99.6 62.5 54.0 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.7 12.0 92.8 59.6 51.9 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.0 13.3 93.5 59.7 52.2 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.0 15.3 18.2 119.5 69.4 57.6 4.9 8.7 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.9 13.5 109.8 66.8 52.6 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.4 12.7 96.6 61.2 52.9 2.9 5.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.7 13.8 137.2 74.6 58.6 3.5 6.0 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.9 17.8 108.9 65.5 56.1 4.2 7.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.5 13.7 13.8 131.0 73.0 58.6 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 11.3 19.0 100.6 62.1 54.0 3.9 7.6 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.1 10.8 14.3 116.4 68.7 56.0 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.2 14.2 134.6 74.0 58.6 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.9 14.3 126.7 71.8 58.3 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.0 16.8 116.9 68.6 56.9 4.9 8.8 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.7 14.9 115.3 68.2 55.6 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.2 12.0 86.0 56.8 49.4 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.4 14.8 122.5 70.4 56.0 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.3 13.2 104.5 64.5 52.8 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 18.3 18.6 106.7 64.6 55.3 6.3 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.9 13.9 132.7 73.5 58.3 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------