***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 42.1 57.6 76.5 162.6 88.2 81.6 17.3 25.4 34.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 42.9 59.5 65.7 155.9 85.8 80.3 14.4 23.3 34.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 57.7 81.6 74.1 159.1 87.4 80.6 21.4 33.0 47.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 53.3 70.3 83.6 156.1 87.8 80.0 27.9 37.0 47.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 51.2 65.2 76.0 143.2 83.4 75.9 25.3 35.0 46.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 42.9 50.3 74.7 132.3 79.0 72.0 18.7 27.5 38.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 38.1 49.5 64.0 152.9 84.8 79.7 15.0 22.6 31.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 75.6 80.9 73.5 125.0 74.6 67.9 50.5 61.5 73.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 45.5 58.4 76.5 143.6 83.1 76.1 21.9 30.8 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 54.5 61.2 75.7 128.6 76.2 69.3 30.0 40.3 51.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 50.1 61.2 71.1 134.7 79.5 72.3 23.0 33.5 45.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 47.6 54.8 68.2 129.8 77.2 70.4 25.2 34.5 45.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 46.0 51.2 72.0 125.4 75.1 67.9 24.0 33.1 43.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 69.1 82.6 82.7 136.9 80.4 74.1 30.8 44.8 61.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 57.1 91.9 84.4 172.7 89.9 82.7 18.3 30.0 45.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 43.1 50.9 71.8 134.6 79.5 72.0 22.6 30.7 40.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 36.9 45.3 60.5 145.9 82.2 76.9 15.4 22.7 31.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 47.0 52.6 79.2 125.7 75.2 68.1 25.3 34.5 44.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 49.1 68.1 68.0 156.5 86.5 80.4 17.8 27.8 40.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 47.1 52.4 95.7 126.3 75.0 68.0 25.8 35.1 45.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 49.4 65.4 76.6 154.1 86.3 79.6 21.3 30.8 41.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 41.2 52.6 64.3 147.5 83.4 77.6 16.4 24.9 34.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 43.2 56.9 71.2 153.1 85.9 79.2 18.6 27.0 36.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 62.3 75.3 77.6 137.7 80.7 73.6 30.3 42.6 56.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 47.6 67.1 84.0 155.2 87.1 80.6 18.8 28.3 39.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 40.3 45.6 71.6 127.3 76.1 69.9 19.5 27.7 37.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 43.7 59.9 79.0 157.3 87.1 80.5 17.9 26.3 36.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 44.7 63.4 79.8 156.6 86.9 79.0 19.1 28.1 38.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 74.8 82.3 84.0 124.3 74.6 67.4 43.2 56.5 71.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 45.1 64.8 69.2 160.7 87.4 81.3 15.7 25.0 36.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------