***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.2 -1.4 31.2 35.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 0.7 -1.4 0.3 -1.0 36.1 40.0 -1.8 0.0 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 0.3 0.5 0.1 -1.2 32.6 37.4 0.6 2.2 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -6.5 -6.8 -2.4 -1.8 26.0 30.0 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -2.5 -2.6 -2.0 -1.6 29.1 33.2 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -4.0 -4.3 -2.0 24.3 29.8 -3.2 -1.7 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -1.1 35.5 39.2 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -9.4 -9.2 -3.3 -1.4 31.9 37.0 -9.1 -7.1 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 1.1 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 34.4 38.3 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 0.9 -0.9 -2.5 -1.2 34.6 38.6 -1.0 0.3 1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 -2.5 -1.7 27.9 32.6 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -1.8 27.0 32.5 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -2.0 -2.3 -3.4 -1.9 24.7 30.0 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -1.2 33.5 38.0 -0.7 0.8 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -1.3 -1.9 -1.7 26.8 31.0 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -1.8 -3.2 -2.1 22.5 27.6 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -1.5 -0.6 0.4 -0.8 39.4 42.3 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -3.1 -3.3 -1.4 33.4 37.4 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -1.9 -1.3 0.3 -1.0 35.4 39.7 -1.6 0.1 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -4.1 -6.4 -5.1 -1.3 34.3 38.8 -6.6 -4.8 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -1.7 -1.5 -0.4 -1.3 32.8 37.1 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -1.8 -0.8 0.6 -0.7 40.8 43.5 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -1.7 0.1 -1.1 34.3 39.1 -1.9 -0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -1.6 -1.3 32.3 36.9 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 31.0 35.0 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 29.7 34.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -0.6 -1.4 31.8 35.9 -1.7 0.1 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -2.4 -2.0 23.8 28.3 -2.4 -1.1 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -5.0 -5.0 -4.3 -1.6 31.1 35.5 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -1.7 -1.3 0.3 -1.1 34.1 38.5 -1.4 0.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------